Walk into almost any American kitchen and you will hear some version of the same story: a teenager is about to graduate, a parent is staring at a tuition bill, and everyone is pretending this is normal. Not just expensive. Normal.
We have built a system where a young person is expected to buy a luxury product and call it “basic.” And if they do not buy it, they are told they will be left behind. That is not education. That is a shakedown.
Yes, college can be a great investment for many people. Engineers, nurses, accountants, and countless other professionals prove that every day. But what Americans are waking up to is something darker: a growing share of what we call higher education is not primarily about learning. It is about credentials. It is about gatekeeping. It is about forcing families into debt to purchase a piece of paper that increasingly does not deliver what it promised.
And the cruelest twist is this: at the exact moment degrees get more expensive, employers and licensing bodies keep moving the goalposts. The bachelor degree that used to open doors now often functions as a ticket to more school, more debt, and more years of delayed adulthood.
The price tag is not just tuition. It is a life timetable
Start with the price. In 2025 to 26, the College Board reports average published tuition and fees of $11,950 for in state students at public four year colleges, $31,990 for out of state students at public four year colleges, $45,990 at private nonprofit four year colleges, and $4,150 for in district students at public two year colleges.
That is before you account for the fact that students have to live somewhere, eat something, and commute. The same College Board report estimates average total budgets, including tuition, fees, room, board, and other expenses, of about $30,990 for commuters at public four year colleges, about $50,920 for in state students living on campus at public four year colleges, about $65,470 for out of state students living on campus at public four year colleges, about $58,280 for students living on campus at private nonprofit four year colleges, and about $21,320 for commuters at public two year colleges.
Now add the financing reality. In 2023 to 24, the College Board shows that 47 percent of bachelor degree graduates at public and private nonprofit four year institutions borrowed, and the average cumulative debt per borrower across those sectors was $29,560 in 2024 dollars.
Then zoom out to the national level. The New York Fed reported that student loan balances rose and stood at $1.65 trillion in 2025 quarter 3.
This is not just a balance sheet problem. It is a life problem.
The Federal Reserve has summarized research estimating that roughly 20 percent of the decline in homeownership among young adults can be attributed to increased student loan debt since 2005.
If you want to know why so many young adults feel stuck, why household formation feels delayed, why “starting a family” feels like a luxury, look at the pipeline we built. We told them to borrow first, live later.
The return on the degree is not guaranteed, and the early career years are getting rough
The defenders of the status quo love to quote averages: higher education correlates with higher earnings and lower unemployment. That is true in the aggregate. The BLS “Education pays” table for 2024 shows median weekly earnings of $1,543 for bachelor degree holders versus $930 for high school graduates, and unemployment rates of 2.5 percent versus 4.2 percent.
But averages hide the pain where it actually lands: at the front end of adulthood, when a young person needs traction. The New York Fed’s tracker for recent college graduates reports that in 2025 quarter 3, their unemployment rate averaged 5.3 percent and their underemployment rate rose to 41.8 percent, the highest since 2020.
Underemployment matters because it is the silent killer of the college promise. It is the graduate with a diploma working a job that does not require it, competing with non graduates who did not pay tens of thousands for the privilege. It is the resume arms race, where you are “qualified” on paper but cannot convert that qualification into a stable career path fast enough to justify the cost.
And the predictable result is that many families are starting to ask the forbidden question: what if the four year path is not the default? What if it is the wrong choice for a large share of kids, especially when we have other paths that build real skills with real paychecks?
The bachelor degree is becoming a ticket to more school
Here is the part that makes the whole system feel like a rigged game: the credential ladder keeps getting taller.
The BLS has long documented a large set of “graduate level” occupations where the typical entry requirement is beyond a bachelor degree. In a BLS Career Outlook analysis, the agency notes 101 occupations that typically require a graduate degree for entry, including 63 that typically require a doctoral or professional degree and 38 that typically require a master’s degree.
And this is not a niche corner of the labor market. A separate BLS note on the 2024 to 34 projections says there are 40 occupations that typically require a master’s degree for entry and 73 occupations that typically require a doctoral or professional degree for entry.
In plain English: even if your teenager is willing to do “the college thing,” the bachelor degree is increasingly treated as step one, not the finish line.
Look at real examples:
• Speech language pathologists typically need at least a master’s degree, and the median annual wage was $95,410 in May 2024.
• Physician assistants typically need a master’s degree, and the median annual wage was $133,260 in May 2024.
• Physical therapists need a Doctor of Physical Therapy degree, and the median annual wage was $101,020 in May 2024.
• Audiologists typically need a doctor of audiology degree, and the median annual wage was $92,120 in May 2024.
• Postsecondary teachers typically must have a PhD or other doctoral degree, though a master’s degree may be enough for some community college roles.
Notice what is happening. Many of these are honorable, socially valuable careers. But the buy in is escalating. More years in school, more tuition, more foregone earnings, and often more debt. The ladder keeps extending upward, while young adults are told it is their personal failure if they do not climb fast enough.
Even within a single profession, credential escalation is not hypothetical. Physical therapy is a clear example: BLS states a DPT is needed to enter the occupation, and one summary notes that the accreditor CAPTE designated the DPT as the required degree for accredited entry level programs in January 2016.
This is the quiet engine behind the new “middle class squeeze.” It is not just that college is expensive. It is that the credential system is increasingly designed to keep you paying.
Meanwhile, the trades are sitting right there, hiring
Now let us talk about the option America spent decades insulting.
The trades are not a consolation prize. They are a direct route to income, competence, and adulthood. And in many regions, a skilled trade worker can out earn a new college graduate, especially when you account for debt payments.
Look at a few hard numbers from the BLS:
• Electricians had a 2024 median pay of $62,350 and are projected to grow 9 percent from 2024 to 2034, with apprenticeship listed as the on the job training pathway.
• Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers had a 2024 median pay of $59,810 and are projected to grow 8 percent from 2024 to 2034.
• Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters had a 2024 median pay of $62,970, and BLS notes most learn on the job through an apprenticeship.
Here is the key difference that working families immediately understand: the trades often pay while you learn.
Registered Apprenticeship is built around that principle. The US Department of Labor’s Apprenticeship.gov highlights an average starting salary of $80K after completion and 90 percent employment retention after completion.
The Government Accountability Office similarly reported that Labor found registered apprenticeship completers earned an average annual salary of about $80,000 in fiscal year 2023.
That is what a real pathway looks like. Training tied to employment, wages that rise with skill, and a credential that actually maps to competence.
And remember the cost side: community college and technical programs are usually far cheaper than four year tuition, with the College Board listing the average published tuition and fees at public two year colleges at $4,150 for in district students in 2025 to 26.
So the question is not whether every kid should skip college. The question is why we pushed millions of kids into the most expensive path first, while starving the cheaper path that often produces better near term outcomes.
Why the scam persists
If this were just about information, the market would have corrected by now. But the credential machine has powerful incentives.
Colleges get paid when students enroll, not when students succeed. Federal lending and aid systems pump money into the pipeline, and the price rises to meet the subsidy. Employers use degree requirements as a cheap filter for applicants, even when the degree is unrelated to the job. And licensing bodies often raise educational requirements in the name of professionalism, even when that means the public pays more for services and young workers pay more to enter the field.
It is a system where the risk is placed on the teenager and the reward is distributed upward.
A practical way out: a pro-worker, pro-skill reform agenda
If we want to restore trust, we need policies that reward outcomes, not prestige.
1. Make ROI transparency mandatory for any program receiving federal aid: completion rates, median earnings, debt levels, and time to repay, published in plain language.
2. Expand and modernize apprenticeship, and treat it as a first class option nationwide, not a niche tool. The results are already strong, including high retention and strong starting pay after completion.
3. Push skills based hiring: reduce needless degree screens and prioritize competency, portfolios, and work based training. Employers are already adjusting requirements in some areas, with data showing declines in certain formal requirements.
4. Stop credential inflation where it is not clearly justified: when the bachelor becomes the new high school and the master becomes the new bachelor, working families are the ones forced to finance it.
The American deal has to make sense again
The old deal was simple: work hard, get trained, build a life. The new deal feels like this: borrow first, wait longer, and hope the credential you bought still counts when you graduate.
A country that wants strong families and a stable middle class cannot run its youth pipeline like a debt trap. We should be proud of academic achievement, but we should be even prouder of competence, craftsmanship, and the dignity of building real things.
For millions of young Americans, the smarter path is not a four year detour into debt. It is a direct route into a skilled trade, a paycheck, and a life that starts now.
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